Fundamental Analysis in The Forex Market
Fundamental analysis is considered to be the opposite of technical analysis, and both are used in the Forex market. Fundamental analysis considers the intrinsic value of an investment when making a decision as to its future activity. There are some who feel that this is an excellent method of making decisions in the Stock market as a lot of data can be gathered and studied concerning the value of a Company. But, they ask, how can a Nation have an intrinsic value?The answer is fairly simple. The economy of a country goes through a basic business cycle, and there are a lot of indicators available to the investor to measure where a particular economy is at any given time. The analysis would involve matching the stage of the cycle with its impact on the value of its currency. The normal economic cycle consists of periods of inflation and deflation with peaks and troughs in between. Certain indicators such as the Gross National Product (GNP), and current prime interest rates can give a good idea of the stage of the economy at any given time.
Each of these indicators would tend to impact currency valuation in different ways, and sometimes would even vary from country to country. In the United States, rising interest rates are normally associated with currency deflation, for example, and it is factors such as this that are the heart of fundamental analysis. This analysis can become quite detailed, but the focus remains on the country and its economy. Every factor that impacts the country and its economy can play a role in the value of the currency, and understanding these factors are the tools the fundamental analyzers uses to guide their investment strategy.
Technical Analysis in The Forex Market.
Technical analysis is considered to be the opposite of fundamental analysis. Technical analysis looks at the past performance and history of an investment. It relies on data showing this history and current trends and patterns to make predictions of future market activity. It ignores the intrinsic value of the investment in favor of its statistical abstract.The Forex market lends itself to technical analysis rather well. The history of the value of currency pairs is a matter of statistical record and can be easily accessed. Its supporters claim it is the only sure way of understanding the market and predicting its future. This is especially true in the Forex market. Fans of technical analysis say that the economies of modern nations are so very complex that they can not be accurately predicated. It is only in the study of the past history of the currency and the trends that are revealed that a possible glimpse of the future be found.
To better understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis consider this example. If you were interested in determining what flavor of ice cream was the best to buy, the fundamental analyzer would go into the ice cream store and try several different types. He seeks its intrinsic value. The technical analysis man would sit outside the store and take notes on the flavors others are buying to decide which was the most popular and therefore most likely the best. He does not look at the intrinsic value, but relies on the data he gathers from others to make his decision. Of course, in the end, it is going to be his own preference that settles the question, and this is true of the market. Both fundamental analysis and technical analysis are mere tools that help you make the decisions that in the end only you can make.
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